The NFL's offensive strategy has undergone a seismic shift, and the upcoming Super Bowl LX between the Patriots and Seahawks is poised to be the ultimate showcase of this evolution! For years, defenses seemed to have the upper hand, thanks to a league-wide focus on recruiting and developing quicker, more agile defensive players. But in 2025, offenses fought back with a powerful counter-strategy: getting bigger.
This season, we've witnessed a surge in offensive formations featuring multiple tight ends, extra offensive linemen, and even fullbacks. This isn't just a minor tweak; it's a fundamental change in how teams approach the game. Why this shift? Well, when defenses became adept at pressuring quarterbacks faster and swarming running backs, offensive minds realized they needed to physically overwhelm their opponents. The result? A return to heavier offensive personnel packages.
Historically, the standard offensive formation was known as 21 personnel, which meant two running backs (one halfback and one fullback) and one tight end, typically accompanied by two wide receivers. However, as the fullback position gradually declined and the spread offense gained prominence from the 1970s through the 2010s, 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) became the dominant setup. Defenses countered this by heavily utilizing nickel defense, which employs five defensive backs and leverages those lighter, faster defenders. In fact, defenses matched 11 personnel with five or more defensive backs a staggering 95.6% of the time this season, a trend that has been steadily climbing.
But here's where it gets controversial... The core idea behind using heavier offensive personnel is to force defenses out of their preferred nickel formations and into a more vulnerable 'base' defense (four defensive backs). Defenses generally don't want their smaller, lighter defensive backs getting overpowered by larger tight ends or offensive linemen in run-stopping situations. This strategy works beautifully for offenses when they stick to what's expected: running the ball. However, when these heavier sets pass the ball, the defense in base formation loses flexibility in its coverage schemes and has less athleticism to effectively cover speedy receivers. This strategic advantage led to defenses playing base on 29.7% of plays in 2025, a significant jump from previous years where it rarely exceeded 25% and even dipped to 20.5% in 2023.
And this is the part most people miss... The AFC champion New England Patriots and NFC champion Seattle Seahawks have been at the forefront of this offensive resurgence. They are among the nine teams that utilized sub packages (personnel sets other than 11) more than 50% of the time this season. This allowed their quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Sam Darnold, to exploit those base defense looks. Maye was remarkably accurate, completing 73.9% of his passes against base defenses, while Darnold achieved an impressive average of 11.1 yards per attempt in similar situations. By the end of the regular season, Darnold's +52.8 expected points added (EPA) against base defenses was the highest among all quarterbacks, with Maye close behind at +33.5 EPA, ranking fifth.
In 2025, the league clearly recognized that offenses equipped with bigger personnel were becoming more versatile than defenses. Offenses deployed sub packages with fewer than three wide receivers on 41.7% of plays, a figure that had consistently remained below 38% in the nine seasons since Next Gen Stats began tracking in 2016. This trend accelerated as the season progressed. While the league used heavy sub packages at a 38.8% rate in the first nine weeks, the average jumped to 44.5% from Week 10 onward – a revolutionary shift. The NFL had never seen sub package usage reach 42% in any single week from 2016 through 2024, but in the final nine weeks of 2025, it happened eight times!
The Seahawks, in particular, have revitalized their offense by creatively mixing personnel. Despite using 11 personnel at the third-highest rate (77.4%) in 2024, reflecting the dominant spread offense of the 2010s, new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, influenced by his father Gary and the Shanahan coaching tree, bucked the trend. In 2025, he implemented an offense that favored condensed formations (54.2% of the time), called fewer passes (51.3%), and crucially, utilized heavier sub packages on 54.2% of plays, the sixth-highest rate in the league. In 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs), the Seahawks led the league with an average of 7.5 yards per play, a remarkable feat and the fifth-best mark in the last decade.
New England, their Super Bowl opponent, has also embraced this offensive transformation. Like the Seahawks, they increased their reliance on fullbacks and multiple tight ends, a key factor in their offensive improvement under Josh McDaniels. Their most striking change occurred mid-season with the development of a jumbo package. New England deployed at least six offensive linemen (or five linemen plus nose tackle Khyiris Tonga) on 87 plays from Weeks 10-18, a stark contrast to just six such instances in their first nine games. This shift dramatically boosted their running game; after averaging a meager 3.8 yards per carry (seventh-fewest) through the first nine weeks, they led the league with 5.5 YPC from Week 10 onwards. In the final eight regular-season games, Patriots running backs averaged an astonishing 7.9 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns, thanks in large part to the extra blocking power.
From a roster-building perspective, the Seahawks foresaw this trend, and their elite defense is the proof. They've confidently kept their nickel personnel on the field for 77.8% of plays against offensive sub packages, a rate significantly higher than any other team (which topped out at 60.5%). When doing so, their average of 4.5 yards per play allowed was among the best. Rookie Nick Emmanwori, a 6-foot-3, 220-pounder, provides Seattle's nickel defense with the robustness of a base unit while retaining the speed and athleticism of a five-DB grouping.
The Patriots, who feature four defensive backs weighing at least 200 pounds, have been comfortable leaving their nickel personnel on the field against sub packages 39.6% of the time, the seventh-highest rate. However, while Seattle has thrived by minimizing base defense, the Patriots have demonstrated their adaptability by excelling in base defense as well. Their base unit, often featuring three large defensive tackles instead of the conventional three linebackers, allowed just 4.1 yards per play, the fifth-fewest for any base defense.
Super Bowl LX will indeed be a fascinating clash of strategic mastery between offensive and defensive personnel. The unsung heroes – the fullbacks, blocking tight ends, and extra linemen – have been the catalysts for these teams' remarkable offensive turnarounds. Regardless of the outcome, this game is set to highlight an unprecedented strategic evolution that has swept through the entire league this season.
What are your thoughts on this shift towards heavier offensive personnel? Do you think defenses will adapt, or is this the future of NFL offense? Let us know in the comments below!
